Will the Vikings regret the Justin Jefferson megadeal? Answering seven questions on what's next (2024)

The news both rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy and Vikings fans have been waiting to hear all offseason finally came across the wire last week: Justin Jefferson isn't going anywhere. After an offseason full of speculation, the three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver signed a four-year, $140 million extension that will keep Jefferson in purple and gold for years to come.

There has been a lot of conversation about this deal since it was announced. Yes, $35 million per year is a lot of money, but there also has been chatter about what it means for the league as a whole. Is this a new era for elite wide receivers? Are the top stars getting paid too much? Should the Vikings have traded Jefferson and drafted a wideout to replace him? Should they have waited for CeeDee Lamb or Ja'Marr Chase, two other star wideouts eligible for extensions, to sign first? Will wide receivers be the next running backs, with teams deciding to move on from spending at the position?

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My answers to those questions are mostly no, but there are a lot of topics to touch on when it comes to Jefferson's contract, what the deal means for both the Vikings and the rest of the league, and where wide receiver fits in the NFL landscape. I'll hit on as many of those topics and questions as I can in a deep dive on this deal and the market at the league's most explosive position.

Jump to a topic:
Why did Jefferson reset the non-QB market?
Is this an unprecedented deal for a WR?
Will a rising tide raise all deals for WRs?
Could teams instead look toward the draft?
Will the WR market move toward the RB market?
Which position will be next to take the leap?
Will the Vikings regret paying Jefferson?

Why is Jefferson's deal so large?

It depends on your perspective. The NFL is essentially two different leagues when it comes to money: one for quarterbacks, and one for every other position. This deal is less than what Derek Carr and Daniel Jones got when they signed their deals with the Saints and Giants, respectively, last offseason.

The story of why this contract stands out beyond the sheer numbers is nerdy, although it holds meaning when it comes to NFL team-building. The most recent leap in the wide receiver market starts with a deal I covered a couple of years ago, when DeAndre Hopkins signed a two-year, $54.5 million extension in September of 2020. The contract, at least in theory, pushed the wide receiver market north of $27 million per season. Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill followed with their own contracts after being traded in March of 2022, with Hill becoming the first player to average $30 million per season at wide receiver.

Those deals had more bluster and empty calories than typical NFL deals. Hopkins' came with three years left to go on his prior deal; he would be released by the Cardinals before the years of that two-year extension even came due. Hill's four-year, $120 million deal jumps from a $21.8 million base salary in 2025 to a whopping $43.9 million in 2026, all of which is unguaranteed. That number exists solely to make him the first $30 million-per-year receiver on paper -- there's no way he'll play for that amount in reality.

Jefferson's deal, on the other hand, doesn't have the same sort of fake money inflation that the others do. The structure makes it likely he will earn north of $30 million per year in actual take-home pay. In the absolute worst-case scenario, he will earn more than $93 million for two years. That's not going to be where the deal ends. Jefferson would earn just over $98 million if the Vikings moved on after three years, but more realistically, this will be a four-year, $123.8 million pact before there will be real talk about what happens next.